Weather Fan: October 2008

Monday, October 27, 2008

First Snow Flakes Of The Season

It's definitely sleeting outside right now. It should continue into the morning as actual snow flurries so there is a slight chance that I could take some pics but I don't think there is going to be enough to show up on camera let alone enough to cover any portion of the ground.

Wind Event

A strong cold front is moving rapidly eastward through the region tonight causing 40 to 45mph gusts. The wind has been really picking up outside in the past few minutes. There's a slight chance of some snow flakes on tuesday morning but it will likely be mixed with rain.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Better Hurricane Path Predictions?

Last month I submitted a question to TalkWeather.com's Meteorologist Q & A forum. Below is the question and the answer that I received.

Question: It seems like only a few years ago that hurricane paths where very unpredictable. Recently it seems that we are able to pinpoint the landfall locations a little better. Are the storms this year more predictable in nature or are we advancing in our prediction capabilities? I know the exact landfall point is still unpredictable but it seems that we are getting closer every year. Or am I just seeing things wrong? -Daniel

Answer: Track prediction accuracy does vary some from year to year, but overall, we are getting better with track prediction capabilities. I am not sure how 2008 will stack up, but NHC has some nice charts on the forecast accuracy from past years at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml. Intensity forecasting, on the other hand, has improved very little in the last 20 years or so. -DVDweather

Forum Thread Topic

Sunday, October 19, 2008

First Freeze Warning Of The Season

Issued by The National Weather Service
Charleston, WV
3:09 pm EDT, Sun., Oct. 19, 2008

... FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE AWAY FROM THE RIVERS. THUS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Volcanic Sediment?

I noticed something odd on the Cruz Bay, St. John webcam earlier when I was adding it to my links. There seems to be black sediment being brought on shore by the waves.

I've seen something similar in my own back yard when coal barges would kick up small waves on the Kanawha River. Coal sediment would splash on shore in much the same way. Since the Virgin Islands are volcanic, I'm pretty sure this is volcanic sediment. Pretty neat.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Monday, October 13, 2008

Tropical Storm Nana Links

NOAA's Nana Page

Reuters Article

The Weather Channel Maps

Note: This storm was very short lived. It is now a tropical depression.

Local Shelter In Place

Issued by The National Weather Service
Charleston, WV
7:30 am EDT, Mon., Oct. 13, 2008

... LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE KANAWHA METRO 911.

THERE IS AN ANHYDROUS AMMONIA LEAK IN THE TOWN OF CARBON IN THE CABIN CREEK AREA. A SHELTER IN PLACE IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE RESIDENTS OF CARBON IN CABIN CREEK.

IF YOU FEEL LIKE YOU ARE IN ANY FORM OF DISTRESS... STAY INSIDE AND CALL 911 FOR ASSISTANCE.

From Wikipedia:

The U. S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has set a 15-minute exposure limit for gaseous ammonia of 35 ppm by volume in the environmental air and an 8-hour exposure limit of 25 ppm by volume.[35] Exposure to very high concentrations of gaseous ammonia can result in lung damage and death.[35] Although ammonia is regulated in the United States as a non-flammable gas, it still meets the definition of a material that is toxic by inhalation and requires a hazardous safety permit when transported in quantities greater than 13,248 L (3,500 gallons).[36]

Update: THE CLOUD OF ANHYDROUS AMMONIA GAS IS HANGING LOW... AND IS ABOUT 100 FEET IN DIAMETER AROUND THE TANK.

ACCORDING TO OFFICIALS... THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE DANGER... HOWEVER THE SHELTER IN PLACE IS STILL MANDATED.

THE ROAD IS SHUT DOWN TO THE AREA WHERE THE INCIDENT IS OCCURRING. A REPRESENTATIVE FROM THE COMPANY IS ON SITE... AND RESPONDERS ARE EN ROUTE.

Winds are currently calm.

Update: Local News Article

Update:

Issued by The National Weather Service
Charleston, WV
9:57 am EDT, Mon., Oct. 13, 2008

... LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE KANAWHA METRO 911.

THE SHELTER IN PLACE FOR THE TOWN OF CARBON IN THE CABIN CREEK AREA HAS BEEN LIFTED. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE DANGER FROM THE ANHYDROUS AMMONIA LEAK... THE INCIDENT IS STILL ONGOING... AND THE LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY CONTINUES.

IF YOU FEEL LIKE YOU ARE IN ANY FORM OF DISTRESS... STAY INSIDE AND CONTACT 911 FOR ASSISTANCE.

Update:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
KANAWHA METRO 911
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1109 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

...LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
KANAWHA METRO 911.

THE ANHYDROUS AMMONIA LEAK IN THE TOWN OF CARBON IN THE CABIN
CREEK AREA IS UNDER CONTROL...AND IS NOW IN THE CLEAN UP PHASE.
OFFICIALS HAVE REQUESTED THE TERMINATION OF THIS LOCAL AREA
EMERGENCY.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Storm Chasers On Discovery Channel October 19th at 10PM Est.

It's times like this that I wish I had cable.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Most Costly Storm In Ohio Since 1974

The cost of the damage that was caused by the remnants of Ike on September 14th in Ohio has been making national headlines today, and it rivals the most costly storm in the states history; the 1974 Xenia tornado.

The Columbus Dispatch Article

Insurance Journal Article

Middletown Journal Article

Southeastern Storms

I wish I was further south right about now. They are actually getting some decent storms down there like this line of storms that I'm tracking now near Charleston, South Carolina (where I have family).

The storm is reported to be capable of producing nickle size hail, 60mph winds (and judgeing from the bow shape and the velocity radar images, I wouldn't doubt that), and continuous cloud to ground lightning.

I really wish one of these would plow through our area just one more time before it gets to be snow season.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Thursday, October 2, 2008

First Frost Advisory Of The Season

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
854 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2008

WVZ015-024>027-035>038-047-030900-
/O.EXB.KRLX.FR.Y.0002.081003T0600Z-081003T1300Z/
KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLESTON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...
SAINT ALBANS...WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...CHAPMANVILLE...MAN...
MADISON...CLAY...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...
SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...WEBSTER SPRINGS...ELKINS
854 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2008

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN THE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THE DEEPER HOLLOWS AWAY FROM RIVERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST TO
FORM ON EXPOSED SURFACES.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.