Better Hurricane Path Predictions?

Last month I submitted a question to TalkWeather.com's Meteorologist Q & A forum. Below is the question and the answer that I received.

Question: It seems like only a few years ago that hurricane paths where very unpredictable. Recently it seems that we are able to pinpoint the landfall locations a little better. Are the storms this year more predictable in nature or are we advancing in our prediction capabilities? I know the exact landfall point is still unpredictable but it seems that we are getting closer every year. Or am I just seeing things wrong? -Daniel

Answer: Track prediction accuracy does vary some from year to year, but overall, we are getting better with track prediction capabilities. I am not sure how 2008 will stack up, but NHC has some nice charts on the forecast accuracy from past years at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml. Intensity forecasting, on the other hand, has improved very little in the last 20 years or so. -DVDweather

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